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Faced with the legal vacuum of leaving the EU without an agreement, the future of the United Kingdom presents two main scenarios

By January 23, 2019 No Comments

Given the unexpected victory of the Prime Minister, Theresa May, the countdown begins to find the best option that will help the United Kingdom to leave the EU without causing havoc to its economy. A goal that is difficult to achieve if one takes into account the two scenarios facing the United Kingdom.

First stage

• The legislative branch will study the proposal presented by the prime minister and will have until January 29 to deliberate it;

• The possibility that the Labor Party accepts the proposal is minimal;

• The opposition calls for a pact that stipulates that the United Kingdom cannot leave without an agreement;

• The prime minister must convince the 100 par-pro-Brexit parliamentarians to leave the EU with no deal;

Second scenario

• The House of Representatives will present their options during the week. In case one acquires the majority vote, this would be the letter to present to the EU;

• The Tories say that the possibility of a no-deal Brexit must remain on the table;

• In order for the idea to gain height among the Labourists, the iron-fisted opponents of the government, it would have to include a permanent customs union with the countries of the Old Continent; however, Brussels would request in return that its workers be allowed to enter the UK, a possibility totally ruled out by the Conservatives.

Status of negotiations

Jeremy Corbyn, the head of the opposition, has rejected the government’s invitations to reach a common agreement as he asks that a no-deal Brexit be discarded before negotiating. His request will prevent the Prime Minister from approaching the legislative power on March 29 with a no-deal proposal and consequentially no other option other than to accept the proposal.

Consequence of Brexit without an agreement with the EU

• Sterling will be down 26%

• Inflation would shoot up to 6.5%

• Unemployment would reach 7.5%

• The price of housing would fall 30%

• GDP would fall 6.5% until 2023

– Angelica Delgado

Brazil
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